, 3
, 9
, 2 (2 players) (2 players) (2 players), 3 (three of a kind, threes)., 9 (three of a kind, nines).
I have exams coming up in three weeks so I’m going to take a break from poker until they’re finished. I finish on the 22nd June and leave for Vegas on the 2nd July. So my plan for the next two months is:
· 26th-29th May – final week of classes
· 30th May – 14th June – prepare for exams
· 15th – 22nd June – exams
· 23rd June – 1st July – holidays!
· 2nd – 15th July – Vegas + 22nd birthday!!!
· 16th – 26th July – holidays!
· 27th July – resume uni
In that first week of holidays I hope to finish my 5/10 goals for the year. I need 25K at 5/10 6-max and 14K at 5/10 HU to have $111,000 and $0 in winnings for the year respectively. Once I’ve done that I would’ve achieved what I wanted to achieve at 5/10 and once I come back from Vegas I’ll take my first shot at being a full time high-stakes only baller – 10/20+ only baby! If that doesn’t go well though I guess I’ll have to return to 5/10 but I really like the idea of leaving 5/10 and midstakes forever. Anyway, time to study up I guess…
My next step I guess is to figure out how the hell to get not just the red line but all three lines going up at 10/20…
Poker has been going pretty average. My downswing hit about -29K at its lowest, recovered to -15K, then fell back to -21K, then hit -7k today after I somehow pulled off a massive 14K four hour session. I’ve had four hours of coaching now, two hours each with iRock and DJ Sensei, and I think it’s definitely helped me immensely. The thing that struck me most about iRock is just how well he knew his opponents. We play in roughly the same games, but whereas I simply classified each opponent very generally (good reg, bad reg, nit, fish etc.), he knew the ins and outs of every opponent. I felt really exposed with my lack of knowledge and so I’ve been working hard on training my reads ever since. I decided to turn off my HUD on FTP since I knew the player base there very well and by some freak of nature my HUD won’t work on Stars or iPoker anyway so I’m actually playing three-quarters HUD-less these days and I think it’s helped me to train my reads quite a lot, though I’m still nowhere near iRock’s level.
Anyway I thought today I’d do the analysis for the first of my “unorthodox hands” that I posted last month. I won’t lie, I’ve been putting this off because I’ve been too lazy and busy with assessments, but now seems as good a time as any. To recap, here’s the first hand.
No-Limit Hold'em, $10.00 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP ($1373)
CO ($1476)
Hero (Button) ($1000)
SB ($965)
BB ($884)
UTG ($2633)
Preflop: Hero is Button with 8, J
3 folds, Hero bets $25, 1 fold, BB calls $15
Flop: ($55) 3, Q, 8 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks
Turn: ($55) 4 (2 players)
BB bets $41, Hero raises $123, BB raises $341, Hero raises $852 (All-In), 1 fold
Total pot: $819
Results:
Hero had 8, J (one pair, eights).
Outcome: Hero won $1409
The ‘play’ I want to talk most about is actually just the turn raise – the 4-bet shove was just a cool extension that made the hand more interesting.
Anyway, on the flop we get checked to with middle pair on a fairly co-ordinated board. Betting is usually fine, but against this particular opponent I decided to check back and play a bit of pot control. The reason for this is that this opponent was apt to check-raise with a wide range and I’d have trouble knowing where I was at. I’d probably call and hate life if he bet the turn no matter what turn card came, whether it was a diamond, an overcard, or a brick. His range would be something like Qx, sets, JT, T9, J9, flush draws, and air. Since flush draws can contain an Ace or King, this means any turn card 9 or higher or any diamond could conceivably make him the best hand, if he didn’t have it already. In other words, the turn would be an impossible situation to play.
Ironically, if this board was rainbow I’d definitely c-bet and ‘dare’ him to check-raise. In that scenario we’re in much better shape for two reasons. First, since flush draws are no longer in his range, we can evaluate turn cards much more easily: a turned Ace or King is not nearly as much of a scare card anymore, nor is any diamond – that’s 1/4 of the deck alone that we’re no longer afraid of! Secondly, since flush draws actually have decent equity against our pair of eights, our equity actually skyrockets once they’re taken out since sets are few and far between and his range will now comprise a lot of those JT gut-shot type hands, a lot of air (his air frequency would actually probably increase since a dry Q83r flop is a good flop for me to c-bet and hence a good flop for him to c/r bluff), and arguably less Qx hands (since there is far less value in check-raising, say, KQ on Q83r than there is on Q83 with a flush draw). In other words, calling down becomes a lot easier and more profitable.
Anyway, back to the actual hand, and we find ourselves led into on the turn. This is a spot where 99% of the world I think calls without much thought. They figure that their hand is underrepresented, their opponent could be leading with a lot of draws, they can’t fold because it’d be too weak, raising would be turning their hand into a bluff, etc. etc. The problem I think with this logic is that against a good opponent your hand is face up as a weak Queen, JJ-99, or an 8. You could conceivably have picked up a spade draw, but it’s pretty likely you would’ve c-bet it on the flop (since it would’ve been air on the flop) so in your opponent’s eyes your range is a lot more narrow than you might think. This in turn means that the river again becomes very difficult for you to play. They know your hand, but you don’t know theirs. If the river comes a diamond and they bet, what do you do? If the river comes a spade and they bet, what do you do? If the river comes an Ace, a King, a Ten, a brick, and they bet, what do you do? You can see that you’re put into a complete guessing game. It’s a spot where the river becomes a very unprofitable situation for you. You could fold to any river bet, but if a river bet is coming about 75% of the time, then calling the turn is just burning money. At the same time, if you do call the river bet, you’ll be putting in money bad a great percentage of the time.
What I’ve decided to do therefore is to occasionally throw in this turn raise. It’s essentially a showdown raise and the last money I intend to put in the pot. The idea is that if you do it infrequently (and you should definitely only do it infrequently since it’s extremely exploitable, as we shall see in a second) it should freeze them since it’s such a WTF line and they should fold their air and gut-shots and flat with their flush draws (VERY few people will 3-bet back over you with a naked flush draw when faced with this line on the turn) and queens. They’re obviously going to keep putting money in with sets, but that’s a tiny part of their range and you can easily fold to the re-raise. Indeed, the extra money you lose on the turn versus sets by raising you probably would’ve lost on the river anyway by calling. The great thing about this line I think is that when you put in money on the turn you’re usually putting it in good. You’re now charging their flush draws and they’ll be forced to play very face up on the river. If they hit they’ll lead and you can fold. If they hit and check, then you can check behind and they’ll feel completely owned, having put money in behind on the turn and extracted nothing from you on the river. If they miss they’ll almost always check and you’ll check back and win a nice pot. If they have a queen the river will check through and you’ll lose the same amount as if you called the turn and called the river (even less actually since the additional turn raise amount will be smaller than a river bet by your opponent had you just called the turn). In other words, it’s a super awesome situation to be in! You’ve managed to turn a situation where you had no idea where you were at into one that’s incredibly easy to play. Cool huh? So what’s the catch?
Well the catch is demonstrated in this hand quite nicely. The problem with this line is that I’m representing absolutely nothing but a turned set or a turned two pair (and it can’t be a two pair containing the top pair since I’m usually betting that). In other words my value-range is miniscule and a smart opponent, like the one in this hand, may 3-bet bluff you back and move you off your hand. If you do this infrequently though, most opponents will give you credit and only 3-bet back with sets.
So then, why didn’t I fold when he 3-bet back in this particular hand? Well, as soon as I raised I could seriously see the wheels begin turning in his head. I knew my line was BS and so, it seemed, did he. The important thing to note though is that when he 3-bet me back his range is still sets or air. It’s not one of those spots where if I’m more likely to be bluffing he should widen his value range. There is absolutely no value in re-raising a Queen since I’m folding my bluffs and if I have the turned set he’s crushed. The far superior and more logical line for a Queen is simply to call down.
So then, faced with a range of sets or air, what is the weight I should give to each? A lot of people know that combinatorically air combinations far outweigh set combinations, but they have to remember that not all air hands will make this 3-bet raise while all sets will. So rather than asking yourself “how many air hands can he have”, you have to ask yourself “GIVEN he’s 3-bet the turn, how many air hands can he have”. Since the whole purpose of this line was to freeze him meaning that air hands should be non-existent in this spot, this was a very difficult question to answer. In the end though, I looked at what set combinations he could have. QQ obviously 3-bets preflop, so that’s one set out of the equation. In relation to 33 and 44, I made a pivotal assumption that they were not in his range and I think that assumption was very accurate. Why? First, my opponent was a good winning reg. This meant that he should know that flatting small pairs from the blinds versus a button open is just plain bad (since my button opening range is so wide, set mining with those pairs is just burning money unless he wants to make a whole bunch of moves postflop with 2 outs if called). Secondly, my opponent literally has the highest 3-bet frequency on PokerStars. Thus, if there’s one person who would be 3-betting 22-55 preflop rather than flatting them, he was it. This meant that the only set my opponent realistically could have was 88, and since I had an 8 myself, there was literally only one combination of hands left in the deck that could beat me. With that knowledge, I shipped it in, and the rest, as they say, is a cool looking hand for a poker blog :).
So I busted out about 45 minutes into today’s play. I was whittled down to 110K after folding for 2 orbits and then finally got the chance to open jam (from the button no less) and got called by the small blind. I had only peeked at my first card (to make sure that people didn’t know I was jamming any two there) and it was the 8s. My opponent flipped over AKo and I flipped over my second card which turned out to be the 5s. Not bad. The board ran out J8649 and I doubled up to about 260K. The very next hand I picked up 66 in the cutoff and the hijack open jammed for 177K or 11 big blinds. He’d been playing very tight for a shortstack but like me he hadn’t really gotten many open jam spots because the player two to my right had been very active. Since I knew he was an online player I re-jammed and he turned out to have 99 and I fell to 83K. The very next hand it was folded to me and I peeked down to see the Ah and jammed. Billy the Croc called on the button and he had 99 too. I turned over my second card and it was a disappointing 3c. The board bricked and I was out in 24th position out of 493, good for $6902 in prize money (buy-in was $2200 so $4.7K profit).
I asked a friend about the 66 re-jam afterwards and he said that the hijack was a notoriously tight player. If I had known that at the time then maybe I could’ve found a fold but even then I think it’s very close. 66/77 is usually my borderline in that spot and I’m re-jamming 77 every time. 66 is situation dependent and perhaps in this particular spot I chose the wrong action but it’s not something that I can beat myself up about. Even the biggest nit in the world (and an online nit is a relative term for sure) is open jamming a decent range from the hijack with 11 bb’s. The only thing that perhaps would have made folding a better play is that I had so much fold equity with any re-jam versus the live players. They’ll fold to a 3-bet shove with like KQ and AJ getting 2-1 or more all day long because they’re so used to the mantra that they’re probably now dominated. This meant that I could have chipped up with a lot less risk if I had ‘waited for a better spot’ rather than force an all-in showdown. However I thought this spot was +EV and so I took it. In addition, I don’t think waiting for a better spot is the way to go in any tournament, at least if you’re trying to win.
Anyway I thought I’d recap one hand from Day 1A which sent me into crazy tilt land. There were 3 limpers to my small blind at 100/200 and I completed with Q5 of spades. The big blind checked and the flop came 973 all spades. I led for 575 and got called by the big blind and the cutoff. The turn brought the Ad and I led for 1400. The big blind thought for a while before raising to 3000 and the cutoff flatted it cold. Ugh. Now the big blind had played and won the first three hands (showing down only one, QQ) but hadn’t played a hand in the hour since. The cutoff had doubled up by flatting a c/r with the nut flush in position and had let his opponent barrel his stack away on a four-flush board. So my reads were something like: big blind is solid, cutoff is a little weaker and has trapping tendencies in position. Now it was only 1600 more to me but it was one of those gross spots where no river card can improve me if my opponents have what they say they have and also I’m out of position and I’m folding to any decent river bet from either player. So instead of calling just to fold every river and donate away 1600 (or even more if I make a crying call versus a small river bet) I elected to fold. If this was the river instead of the turn I think I would’ve called. Anyway the river paired the 7 and the big blind led for 3000 and the cutoff jammed. So I’m sitting there patting myself on the back for avoiding this river spot while the big blind went into the tank. It seemed like he had the nut flush and was wondering whether the cutoff had filled up with like 99, 33, A7 or maybe even 97. Eventually he made the call with T2s and the cutoff showed As8x having turned his hand into a bluff. FML.
Now the cutoff obviously wouldn’t have pulled this move if I was still in the hand so I think the river action would’ve gone: I check, big blind bet 3000, cutoff fold, I (crying) call getting over 5-1 and then I ship the 85bb pot. Sigh.
Anyway the Sydney University Poker Society is running a $100 freeroll on Full Tilt in 90 minutes so hopefully I can go win that and make up some for my early bust-out this morning.
Well I made it through Day 2 but I’m extremely short going into tomorrow with only 12 big blinds. It was kind of ridiculous because I was in good shape the entire day and then suddenly on the bubble we played about 5 hands the entire level and by the time the bubble burst the blinds had gone up again and I suddenly found myself with less than 30 bb’s rather than 40+ despite not having lost a hand. Speaking of the bubble, my god some live players are scared money… It was tilting beyond belief. In one hand this loose young player opened the cutoff (as he’d done like 90% of the time) and the small blind with 7 bb’s folded AK and the big blind with 5bb’s folded AJ. Come on… I know that overall their tightness is a good thing for me, but when you really just want the bubble to be over so you can play more hands at blind level X rather than at blind level X+1, it can be really frustrating!
Anyway I have 192,000 in chips going into tomorrow and the blinds will start at 8000/16000 with a 2000 ante. There are 26 players left (I’m about 20th) and my stack is about half the average so although I’m not in great shape I think if I can get just one double up I’ll be good to go but that’s easier said than done I guess. Anyway, time for some sleep. I was literally dozing off during the last orbit…
