Winter Holidays, Part II

(I know I’ve been pretty lazy with putting Part II up, but here it is finally! To read Part I click here)

Saturday was the day of my 21st as well as the day of my 21st birthday party. After karaoke the night before I went home and worked on my playlist until like 5AM and was pretty much already exhausted by the time I woke up at 1PM. Pete and I then went to David Jones in the city to lug a great big cake from one side of the city to the other. We got some pretty weird looks from people wondering what was inside the box and with all the human traffic in the way I was tempted to shout “bomb!” so that people would let us through easier but I thought better of it. Anyway, the party itself turned out pretty well I think and a good night was had by all. Here are some photos from the night.

Lisa and Me

Muller, Me, Em, JP, Lucy

Dan, Rachel, Amelia, Antony, Brian

Julian, Shikha, Warren, Celia Adrienne, Alina, Lisa, Rachel

Ellie, Anna, Scott, Alicia, Tom Bonnie, Ros, Lisa, Lisa
Stew, Jana, Anthea, Stefan, Cat
Alice, Jason, Richard, Lisa, Antoe
Antony and Pete

Lewis, Bruno, Lucy, Muller, Me, Ed, Zoe, Em, JP

Fraser R, Pete, Kath, Marissa
David, Lucy, Jon

Maddie, Sarah, Lucy, Claire

Alice, Anna and Antoe

On Monday Antony and I decided to go to the casino again. Antony was pretty keen to continue his live cash game adventure having found out the week before just how bad live players really were. Since I really hate playing live 40BB max buy-in cash I decided to play the $200 midday tournament instead. Starting stacks were 3000 chips and we had 30 minute blind levels starting at 25/50. Nothing too interesting happened for the first hour and I was playing really tight. I think I only played two hands during that time: I opened QQ from the cutoff and picked up the blinds and 3-bet shoved AK from the small blind versus a raise and one caller (bit of an overbet but whatever). Then my interesting hand of the day came up. With the blinds at 75/150, I was UTG and looked down to see two red aces. I opened to 450 and got one caller, UTG+2. This player seemed fairly competent and had built up a pretty big stack by sucking out JJ v KK preflop. With my super tight image and a raise from UTG, I was pretty confident that his range was small pairs and suited connectors that were trying to outflop my probable big pocket pair. The flop came pretty nasty for that range, 578r. The pot was already about 1100 and we had about 2300 behind. My first thought was just to bet-call all-in but I decided to at least open up his range and check-raise all-in. So I checked and he fired 800 and I moved to check-raise all-in. Then I changed my mind again and decided to open up his range even more by check-calling twice all-in instead. So I just called. The turn came a Tc putting a flush draw out there, I checked and he tossed in a 1000 chip and a 500 chip to put me all-in. I was getting 3-1 and obviously snap-called.

Not.

Instead, I sat there and decided to mull over the hand, trying to think of a hand I could beat. Here’s my thought process.

Question One: What does he think I have?

Answer: Jacks through Aces.

Question Two: What do I actually have?

Answer: Aces.

Question Three: Does he think I will fold them?

Answer: Probably not; I’m an unknown getting 3-1.

Conclusion: He has me beat!

So I get the clock called on me and eventually muck.

He tables K9c for a gutshot and flush draw…

Evidently, I should go back to thinking on level one when I play live. Any thoughts on the hand?

I get knocked out soon after, pushing K8 from the big blind versus four limpers and losing to AT.

While I waited for Antony to finish playing, I went to the roulette tables to spend the $10 voucher that the casino had given me for my birthday. I arrived at the nearest one and tried to bet on 21. Unfortunately, I couldn’t get the man’s attention in time and all bets were closed. Obviously, it landed on 21… I looked and saw that with that hit 21 had actually been hit four times in the last twenty spins. Since this meant that 21 wouldn’t be hit for at least another 112 spins, I decided to switch tables. Alas, this time, it bricked…

On Wednesday night we went to see the Dark Knight and I have to say that it was pretty awesome. It’s a pretty long movie but you don’t really feel it at all since there is always so much action going on. I don’t quite think it’s one of the best movies ever but it’s definitely well above average. I do think though that the movie could have done without introducing Two Face as a villain. He didn’t really add anything to the film’s finale and they could easily have left him on the hospital bed and have the audience wondering what he’ll become in the next film. That said, you should all definitely see it if you haven’t.

On Friday Pete had a poker night over at his. It was our standard $0.05/$0.10 cash game and the stakes were high. I got off to a pretty bad start and was quickly stuck about three buy-ins; I lost trip Aces to a full house, missed a flush draw versus top pair and lost top two pair versus a gutshot all-in on the turn (nice play Jason! NOT). Somehow though, I managed to finish the night up three buy-ins. I owe a large part of that to Antony who gave me 200BB in one hand. I had flopped quads and, using all my powers of manipulation, trash-talking and reverse tell mind tricks, managed to induce Antony into stacking off with a flopped boat. Now that’s what you call outplaying someone!

(to be continued…)

August Review and September Goals

August has been a very frustrating month for me. I’ve had swings far beyond what my bankroll is set to handle and I even managed to have my biggest losing day ever last week: -$8000. Consequently, I’ve decided to lock my Party and Full Tilt accounts for a month, partly so that I can complete the loads of uni assessments that I have coming up, but mostly to take a breather and re-analyse my game. I know that there is a lot of short-term variance involved in poker and that I shouldn’t read too much into this month’s results but I feel I’d rather step back now and make sure that I don’t have any glaring leaks instead of waiting till it’s too late. I certainly have run fairly badly this month; EV-adjusted I’m actually still in the black and I’ve lost about $5000 from running QQ+ into KK+ preflop which I’m sure I’ll recoup in the future when the hands are reversed. Still, the thing that clinched my decision to lock my accounts is that my non-showdown winnings started deteriorating. It’s certainly true that non-showdown winnings don’t tell the whole story, just as EV graphs don’t, but I’ve always felt that positive non-showdown winnings are a pretty good indicator that you beat a limit. To illustrate, here’s my 1/2 non-showdown winnings graph from earlier in the year.

Compare this now to my graph for midstakes (2/4 NL+).

As you can see, the red line is break-even for almost 50,000 hands but then it starts rapidly declining, around about the same time that I dropped 2/4 tables from my play and added more 5/10 tables. Clearly, I’m having difficulty earning those extra small to medium pots at 5/10 compared to 2/4.

Another factor in my decision to take a break was that I felt that I was getting a bit lazy with my game. While playing, I’d often play too many tables and/or play far too ABC. Away from the felt, I virtually stopped watching videos and analysed hands a lot less. In short, my game was once again getting a bit stale and in need of a creative injection. I think that when you’re on an upswing, as I had been for the few months prior, it’s all too easy to just want to keep playing and keep winning and you stop doing the little things that got you into that upswing in the first place. Hopefully I’ll learn from this lesson and continue keeping my game fresh in the future.

Anyway, here are my results for August.

My plan for September is to continue to watch a lot of videos and study up on the game. I was doing this a lot earlier in the year when I was trying to work out how to beat 2/4 NL but got really complacent once I did so. As a result, I’ve got a pretty big backlog of videos to watch so I’m going to try to get through as many as I can. I also recently added Leggo Poker and PokerSavvy Plus to my portfolio of training sites so hopefully the new instructors there will offer some fresh insights and perspectives that will help my game.

When I restart playing next month, I’ll only have about 10 days left in the month so I’m not going to set myself any monetary goals for September. I do hope however to make some good inroads into recouping the money that I lost this month.

I’ve now got a bankroll online of exactly $30,000, having spent about $300 on the Leggo Poker and PokerSavvy Plus subscriptions and cashed out the remaining amount above 30K (about $800) to reward myself for the hours I’ve put into poker over the last few months. I think I’ll use the money to buy a Wii and a new iPod since I’ve been planning to buy those two items for quite a while now and it’s high time that I actually did.

Once I do restart playing, my ultimate goal (revised from before) is to eventually get my bankroll to $120,000. I’ve decided that I do want one day to become a 5/10 AND 10/20 regular as opposed to just a 5/10 one so the extra bankroll requirement is a reflection of that. Since this new goal will take me a while to achieve I’ve also decided to begin making regular cash outs. I’ve always had trouble balancing cashing out with growing my bankroll but generally I’ve gone with the “never cash out, always grow the bankroll” approach. Last year for example my goal was to hit $12,000 and I didn’t cash out a cent till I hit that figure. When I decided to move up to 2/4 and beyond I revised my target bankroll to $60,000 and was happy to not cash out until I reached that new figure. But my new target now of $120,000 is going to take some getting and not cashing out for possibly another year while I reach that target is a thought I don’t particularly enjoy having. Thus, I think that making regular cash outs is the only way forward for me now. In any case, the amount of buy-ins I need to cash out nowadays to allow me to spend freely is a lot less than it used to be so the stunting effect of a cash out on my bankroll will be a lot smaller anyway.

Anyway, I think that’s enough for this entry. Good luck at the tables!

Holy %#$&

Two Hands Versus Eric Liu and Krantz

It’s been a pretty crazy month for me so far. Though I haven’t had any massive swings in terms of buy-ins, I am still getting used to the idea of having +/- $2000 sessions as the norm. Back when I was playing 2/4, a negative $2000 session would pretty much be considered an absolute disaster. Now, at 3/6 and 5/10, I can lose a race and miss a flush draw and instantly find myself stuck the same amount. Here’s the graph for August so far.

One nifty thing about playing 3/6+ is that I’m now playing with people I recognise from CardRunners videos. When I was a 1/2 player, I’d sit down and watch just about every one of Taylor and Brian’s 5/10 videos and dream of one day playing in those games. Now, actually sitting in those games and having those same players sit down with me, I think it really reinforces for me just how much progress I’ve made.

Speaking of CardRunners videos, I just remembered yesterday that I actually appeared in one! It was a 2/4 video by Eric Liu in June and I meant to blog about it then but I think it completely slipped my mind. I remember I was a 1/2 player at the time and was scanning the tables for good games when I noticed four 2/4 tables highlighted in red. Ordinarily this would mean that Hans Vogl was grinding away but when I clicked on the tables I was pleasantly surprised to see Eric Liu’s name instead. Though jumping into a 2/4 game filled with the best regs (more on that in a second) probably wasn’t the best idea in hindsight, I thought that having the opportunity to 1) appear in a CardRunners video 2) play against Eric and 3) get some feedback on my game was too good an opportunity to pass up. So I joined all four waiting lists and sat down at three of the tables in pretty quick time.

The composition of each table was pretty ridiculous. Despite CardRunners’ best intentions, there is no doubt that having red name pros as instructors detracts from the integrity of the videos. You see, within minutes, Eric’s tables had been swamped by the best 2/4 regulars who no doubt all saw the same opportunity as me. What followed then was a session of people mercilessly trying to outplay Eric and just generally give him a hard time. In short, this was certainly not your typical 2/4 game. In fact, if you watch the video you’ll actually see Eric having to continually fold to 3-bets preflop, all the while commenting on how ridiculously aggressive the 2/4 games had gotten. If you were a small stakes player watching this, you’d be forgiven for thinking “jeez, the games are crazy tough up there!”

I only really played one hand of note against Eric and in hindsight I’m not sure I played it very well. We had $500 effective stacks and he opened in the cutoff with AQo and I 3-bet from the big blind with TT. I’d 3-bet him about two orbits earlier in this same situation with 88 (he folded) so I wasn’t expecting to get much credit and indeed Eric quickly called the 3-bet. I think in the video he actually says something like “if I get 3-bet here there is no way I’m folding ace-queen”. The flop came Ks4s6c and I led $72 into the $99 pot and he quickly called. I remember thinking at the time that Eric was fairly unlikely to have a King here (I assume he’d 4-bet AK and fold KJ leaving only KQ/KJs as a real possibility) and that this flop was a good one for him to float if he thought I was playing back light preflop. Thus, before the turn came, I decided to check-shove just about any card as his call flop/bet turn range would heavily be weighted towards floats. My logic for this was that KQ probably would’ve raised the flop with the intention of getting it in while something like KJ or 99 would almost certainly check back the turn. The turn came the Kd and this was actually a very interesting card because it now means that KJs and KQ will bet the turn (rather than check behind) but it also means that these hands are less likely to be in his range. I think it’s a pretty close decision but in the end I did shove all-in after I checked and he bet half-pot. He obviously instantly folded. Here's the hand history for the whole hand.

Party Poker, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

Eric Liu (CO): $845.50

BTN: $544.50

SB: $1,546.80

Hero (BB): $509.40

UTG: $823.50

MP: $1,088.40

Pre-Flop: T T dealt to Hero (BB)

2 folds, Eric Liu raises to $14, 2 folds, Hero raises to $50, Eric Liu calls $36

Flop: ($102) 6 K 4 (2 Players)
Hero bets $72, Eric Liu calls $72

Turn: ($246) K (2 Players)

Hero checks, Eric Liu bets $122, Hero raises to $387.40 and is All-In, Eric Liu folds

Results: $490 Pot

In the video he actually remarks that he expects me to call the turn and then fold to a river bet. I was actually really surprised by this as I hadn’t considered check-calling the turn at all. For me, the decision on the turn was whether to go with the hand or not. If I decided to go with it, I thought the natural consequence was to shove since check-calling would almost certainly entail check-calling the river bet as well (I’d be getting 3-1). I actually chased Eric up on an FTP table a few days later and asked him about the hand and he said that he liked check-shoving with a read but preferred check-calling without. I’m still not sure what the correct play was in this particular hand but I do think now that I should’ve at least considered check-calling. My logic of being pot committed was pretty flawed since pot odds are quite irrelevant on the river if you’re beat. Whether you’re getting 3-1 or 10-1, stacking off 65BBs with no equity is certainly not something you want to be doing regularly!

To finish, I thought I’d post this hand that I played yesterday. It was against Krantz and is quite simply a superb example of me outplaying an opponent. Not many players can say that they’re up lifetime against Krantz, but I’m now one of them!

Party Poker, $10/$20 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BTN: $2,061

pr1nnyraid (SB): $9,299

Hero (BB): $2,107

UTG: $3,813.50

CO: $2,939

Pre-Flop: K 9 dealt to Hero (BB)

3 folds, pr1nnyraid raises to $60, Hero raises to $180, pr1nnyraid folds

Results: $120 Pot

BOOYAH!

July Review and August Goals

July Review

At the start of July, I set myself two goals:

1. Continue winning at mid stakes
2. Have a sufficient bankroll by the end of the holidays to regularly play 5/10 NL

I think I can say that I achieved the first goal but not the second. I finished up $14,500 for the month which is comfortably my biggest month ever. That said, it could easily have been a lot better as not only did I not run very well ($10,000 below equity for the month) but I also lost several very soft buy-ins towards the end of the month (I was playing too many tables in an effort to hit $20,000 for the month and stacked off really poorly in some spots as a result). In terms of having a sufficient bankroll for 5/10 NL, my goal (rather ambitious I have to say) was to hit $60,000 by the end of the holidays. Due to lack of time and general laziness I didn’t put in anywhere near the amount of hands that I imagined I would and consequently I didn’t get anywhere near that goal. Even when I did have time to play, oftentimes I’d see that I was up $1,000 or so and think “oh well, that’s enough for the day I think” and just stop. Secretly, I think I was just trying to lock in a profit and that probably hurt my winning potential. Though I think, as raptor says, it’s not always about playing on whenever the games are good; locking in a winning session has its merits too (in raptor’s words, +Happiness EV). Anyway, here’s the graph and stats for July.



This means that I’ve now put in two consecutive $10,000 months. As I said at the end of my June Review, I really feel like I’ve finally figured out how to beat mid stakes and am feeling very confident in my game. Here’s the combined graph and stats for my last two months at mid stakes.

August Goals

I won’t be putting in many hands this month due to university so I’m not going to try to top the amount that I made last month. That said, I’d really like to make another $10,000 this month and make it three $10K months back to back. So I guess my monetary goal for August is to win $10,000.

I’ve been mixing 3/6 and 5/10 tables this month and I have to say that it is a lot more difficult than mixing 2/4 and 3/6 tables. For the most part, 2/4 and 3/6 play almost identically so you don’t have to make any big adjustments or switch mindsets as you move from one table to another. While I don’t think 5/10 is a massive jump from 3/6 in terms of skill, I do think the games play very differently and it’s therefore quite hard to play 3/6 and 5/10 at the same time. Thus, I’m going to try to play exclusively 3/6 this month until I hit my $10,000 goal and then play 5/10 exclusively after that. I doubt I’ll be able to stick to this goal, especially if I see a huge fish at a 5/10 table, but I hope that I’ll be able to stick to it for the most part.

My final poker goal for August is to stick to the poker timetable that I’ve made for myself. Basically, it involves playing only on weekends (to ensure that I don’t chase on weeknights) and studying during the week (watching CardRunners and Deuces Cracked videos and reviewing hands).

$8,700 Pot

To finish, I thought I’d post this hand that I played yesterday. It’s completely standard and pretty uninteresting, but it does qualify as the biggest pot I’ve ever lost. If my hand had held up, I’d already have reached my August goal!

Party Poker, $10/$20 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter


UTG: $640

MP: $5,625

Hero (CO): $5,983

BTN: $4,380

SB: $2,440

BB: $2,399

Pre-Flop: K K dealt to Hero (CO)

2 folds, Hero raises to $70, BTN raises to $280, 2 folds, Hero raises to $930, BTN raises to $3,540, Hero raises to $5,983 and is All-In, BTN calls $840 and is All-In

Flop: ($8,790) J T A (2 Players - 1 is All-In)


Turn: ($8,790) 6 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)


River: ($8,790) A (2 Players - 1 is All-In)


Results: $8,790 Pot ($3 Rake)
Hero showed K K and LOST (-$4,380 NET)
BTN showed A Kand WON $8,787 (+$4,407 NET)